Model probability.
Market price.
The gap is the value.
Every sport has its own model and its own, clearly disclosed relationship to the market, from market-anchored to market-independent. Value only exists where the result meaningfully diverges from the real bookmaker price.
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Pick of the day, chosen on 09/09/2026
See every number behind this pickHow Pronoly reads a market.
Four steps, no black box: from the model's own number to whether there is enough evidence for an official pick at all.
Model
A sport-specific model computes a win probability or a fair line, starting independently of any bookmaker price.
Market
The actual price and line offered by that bookmaker is converted into an implied market probability, de-vigged for the bookmaker's built-in margin.
Edge / value
Model probability against market probability: when the real price drifts meaningfully from the fair one, a value signal with positive expected value appears.
Evidence
Only an odds range already backed by real settled results (VERIFIED) can become an official value bet or pick of the day. Anything outside that range (WATCH) stays internal observation.
Seven sports, seven purpose-built models.
Every row states plainly how much the market feeds into that number: from fully market-anchored to genuinely market-independent. No sport is sold as independent when it isn't.
| Sport | Model | Market relationship | Leagues & tours |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | Dixon-Coles simulation, xG form | Market-anchored inside the model | Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, 3. Liga, Premier League, Championship, LaLiga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Süper Lig, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League |
| Ice Hockey | Goal-distribution model (exact) | Market-anchored inside the model | NHL, DEL, Liiga, SHL |
| Tennis | Point-by-point simulation | Blended, 40% model / 60% market | ATP, WTA |
| Basketball | Pace-adjusted model (exact) | Blended, 40% model / 60% market | NBA, WNBA, EuroLeague, BBL, NCAA |
| Handball | Goal-distribution model (exact) | Blended, 40% model / 60% market | Bundesliga, EHF Champions League, ASOBAL, LNH, Handboldligaen, Superliga (Poland) |
| Baseball | Plate-appearance simulation | Blended, 30% model / 70% market | MLB |
| American Football | Scoring-distribution model (exact) | NFL blended (40/60) · NCAA FBS/FCS market-independent | NFL, NCAA FBS |
20,000 simulation runs for football, tennis, and baseball. Basketball, ice hockey, handball, and American football solve the distribution exactly, with no simulation noise at all.
Not every price becomes an official pick.
Before an odds range counts toward official value bets or the pick of the day, it has to earn that by holding up against real, settled games.
An odds range with enough settled, evidenced results behind it. Candidates here can become official value bets or the pick of the day.
An odds range outside the already-evidenced reach. Visible in the Bet Builder for reference only, never as an official value bet or pick of the day.
No forced pick
If nothing clears the bar on a given day, Pronoly honestly shows no pick of the day, rather than substituting the most likely winner instead.
From detection to a position of your own.
Value detection is already included in the free account. Premium removes the daily cap and adds the tools to turn it into a decision you can actually trace.
Value bets
Up to three qualified value bets a day on the free account, unlimited with Premium. Ranked by expected value, with model probability and market price side by side.
Pick of the day
One candidate per day, when one clears the evidence threshold. Free to view, no sign-up required.
Kelly criterion
Computed from model probability, price, and a safety factor you set yourself, a stake-sizing suggestion rather than flat units.
Your own positions
Log the bets you actually placed, Pronoly tracks profit and loss automatically against the price you recorded.
Bet Builder
Set filters for expected value, win probability, price, and number of legs, Pronoly assembles a combo across all seven sports automatically.
Archived before kickoff, untouched after that.
Every prediction is stored with its model probability, market price, and timestamp before the game starts. The public track record page has listed them since day one, updated hourly.
See the track recordNo after-the-fact selection
A prediction cannot be edited or removed once it's stored, not even after kickoff.
Public track record
Every archived prediction is visible on the track record page, broken down by sport and league.
Ongoing monitoring
A background process checks three things before anything is shown: data freshness, odds coverage, and the plausibility of the calculation itself.
See the evidence without an account. Premium shows everything.
Open without signing up: the pick of the day, the public track record page, the daily prediction pages. Premium removes the three-value-bets-a-day limit and unlocks American football and handball.
- Pick of the day, daily
- Public track record
- Daily prediction pages
- No sign-up required
- Five of the seven sports
- Full predictions per game
- Up to three value bets a day
- No credit card required
- All value bets, unlimited
- All seven sports
- Kelly criterion & your own positions
- Bet Builder for combo bets
- Everything in Monthly
- One payment per quarter
- 23% cheaper
Payment via Stripe. Cancel anytime in the dashboard, effective at the end of the current period. Prices are final prices, no VAT shown under the German small-business rule (§ 19 UStG). No guaranteed returns, 18+.
Questions we actually get.
See one real number today, before you decide anything.
No credit card, 18+, no guaranteed returns.